Two reports last week offered good news about the sustainability of the UK’s economic recovery.
The first, the Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI, showed the strongest growth in the sector since September 1994. The second was a survey from the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development. The quarterly Labour Market Outlook forecast an expansion of the jobs market in the second quarter of this year. This follows five quarters of falls in employment predictions.
The report showed the proportion of employers who
will expand worker numbers over those who will cut them
is now +5 per cent. And for private sector employers this figure rocketed to +29 per cent. Indeed 70 per cent of those companies questioned said they intended to recruit over the
The optimism in the CIPS manufacturing report showing a boost to order books and exports was reflected in employment figures for this area of the economy with 24 per cent more employers looking to take on rather than lay off workers over the next quarter.
The bad news for some buyers is that the recruitment figure for the public sector overall was -43 per cent, the lowest
since the survey began in 2004. Within this total the category covering local authorities and central government was
-59 per cent.
None of us yet knows the full effects of the post-election public sector savings – and at the time of writing on polling day, the identity of the government is not known. But whoever is holding (or tightening) the purse strings over the next few years there will be deep cuts.
Overall these reports are good news for those buyers who lost their jobs during the recession. And for those who have been waiting in current roles for the worst of the conditions to pass before looking for the next challenge. Less good for public sector buyers and may herald a reverse of the trend of private sector purchasers moving to the public sector