As part of his presentation to the CIPS Annual Conference last week, CIPS economist and Cranfield School of Management professor John Glen put his head above the parapet to make some predictions about the position of the UK economy in 12 months' time.
His view of the UK economy at the moment - and moving forward - was largely positive: “It’s a good year. The UK economy will grow at more than 3 per cent this year. It’s a Goldilocks economy - not too hot, not too cold.”
Glen’s predictions were:
• UK interest rates will probably be in the region of 1-1.25 per cent, with no increase predicted before the 2015 general election.
• He does not believe there will be an outright majority for any party at the general election. “I think there will be another hung parliament,” said Glen.
• UK inflation will be around 2 per cent, but average wages will still not rise much above that figure.
• Employee productivity has to start improving, because the labour market will be tight.
• Businesses will try and match unused capacity to customer demand, aping the model of taxi-sharing business app Uber.
We shall see whether Glen is proven right at next year’s CIPS Annual Conference.