Resource competition could lead to the rise of “autarkies” as states battle to secure supplies of minerals, food and water, a report has warned.
The World Economic Forum’s (WEF) Global Risks Report 2023 outlined “hypothetical futures” for 2030 based on the degree of collaboration between states and the impact of climate change on the supply of natural resources – described as the “polycrisis”.
Under the worst-case scenario there is a “danger of resource wars” as inaction on climate change leads to water and food shortages, combining with the “weaponisation of metals and minerals”.
“This results in a truly global, multi-resource crisis, with widespread socioeconomic impacts that exceed those faced in other futures in both scope and scale, including famine and water scarcity refugees,” said the report.
“Geoeconomic warfare is widespread, but more aggressive clashes between states become one of the few means to ensure supply of basic necessities for populations.”
Under the most benign scenario there is “resource collaboration”, where effective climate actions and flexible supply chains enabled by global cooperation “largely absorb the impacts of climate change on food production”.
“However, shortages in water and metals and minerals cannot be avoided,” the report said.
“Persistently high commodity prices slow climate mitigation – despite ambitions – and add to inflationary pressures in broader value chains, while water stress leads to a growing, but comparatively contained, health and humanitarian crisis in developing nations.”
The report warned of the rise of autarkies – countries that operate in a state of self-sufficiency – fuelled by distrust.
“Resource power shifts, driving the formation of new blocs as well as wedges in existing alliances between mineral rich and poor countries, while the potential for accidental or intentional conflict escalates,” said the report.
WEF said “older” risks associated with inflation, cost-of-living crises and trade wars were being “amplified by comparatively new developments” such as unsustainable debt levels, low growth, rapid and unconstrained expansion of technologies and an “ever-shrinking window for transition to a 1.5C world”.
However, the report said there was “still a window to shape a more secure future through more effective preparedness”, and “addressing the erosion of trust in multilateral processes will enhance our collective ability to prevent and respond to emerging cross-border crises”.
“As a deteriorating economic outlook brings tougher trade-offs for governments facing competing social, environmental and security concerns, investment in resilience must focus on solutions that address multiple risks, such as funding of adaptation measures that come with climate mitigation co-benefits, or investment in areas that strengthen human capital and development,” said WEF.
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